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A resistor that is changing value may very well be the problem.
To bad you didn't monitor the HV during the time the shunt tube current was rising. Voltage breakdown at the cap would point to the HV moving higher.
I don't see that you said that you replaced the shunt regulator tube, that may be another possibility.
Kind of odd that the shunt current rises yet the HV is still climbing.
Sounds like the flyback is over producing.
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