Is the DVD format already doomed? It's been just a few years that DVD players appeared, and it's been even more recently that they became affordable to the masses, and now...there's Blue Ray and HD DVD. It seems that the industry is just waiting to see which one of them will win the war for the consumer preference, to bury the already "old" DVD format. I ask, what is in store for the millions of DVD player owners like myself all around the world? Does any or both of this new formats play the current DVD format? If not, I don't like the prospect of just in a few years going to shop and not finding any movie that I can play on my "old" DVD player. There are millions of DVD players in the world right now, will they allienate all this people? I really strongly dislike the idea of having to put my hands on my pockets and have to buy a new player and new discs, after all, money isn't the sort of thing that grow in trees, and I am very satisfied with the quality of image that my DVD player provides. I really hope that they continue to make convencional DVD discs for many years to come ( like they did with 78 rpm records - here in Brazil, at least, they were still being recorded in the 1960's ). If not, it will be really a case of corporate greed.

I can see the DVD staying for a long time just like the cd has stayed despite SACD and DVD Audio. Most are very happy with the quality and see no real reason to lay out additional funds.

If you had a killer HT rig than Blue Ray or HD DVD could be a wonderful thing. But like the two audio formats when there is no clear direction most will stay with what is proven regardless of any superior sound/ picture.

I have a friend who works in the computer industry and he says the future belongs to flash drives. They're working on expanding the storage capabilities so that eventually whole movies (and audio music) will fit on one unit. Kind of like the old Atari cartridges from the 70s.

:scratch2:

As long as the price of blue ray or HD DVD drives stays up in the stratosphere regular DVD has nothing to worry about.

Rob

Also, most folks don't have HDTV units. Until they become uber affordable, most folks wouldn't get any real benefit from them anyway. My Sony DVD and JVC 32" tv are great, I'm happy. Total cost new recently was like 359 or so bucks for both. Until I can get the same deal in a HDTV and player, I'll pass.

I think DVDs are still going to be around for a long time. Now if the new format does ever take hold there will be lots of bargain old fasioned, low tech non HD DVDs for sale for those of who are happy with are old low tech players. Bring on the bargains.

i think dvd will be around for a while. luckily these blue ray players etc. still play the dvd's and just about every computer has a dvd player in it.

unless you have a new high definition tv the newer blue ray and hd-dvd won't do you any good.

my buddy has a 60" DLP projection HDTV, and just got a PS3 (which has a blu-ray player)...honestly I didnt notice a big difference between regular DVD and the Blu-ray. Maybe on an LCD or CRT HD set i would, but i was kinda left a bit dissappointed.

I was reading an engineering magazine a few weeks ago, and they predicted that DVD would not last very much longer. The prediction is that after another few years, the internet will be used to stream movies to your home. You'll pay your fee to buy the rights to watch your movie whenever you want via a stream from the servers at Netflix (or whoever). By this time, movie studios will no longer sell movies on DVD, forcing us to play the game their way. That'll make it hard to watch movies on the portable TV in the car, won't it? (not to mention the people who live out of reach of broadband. Try to watch a movie on dial-up!)

I for one hope this prediction is wrong.

"What will happen to DVD? "

It will be replaced by something else. New source material will stop being avalible on DVD and we will once again end up buying titles we already own in the new format/device/media. Oh well it does seem to keep the old US economy going :smoke:

Lefty

I was reading an engineering magazine a few weeks ago, and they predicted that DVD would not last very much longer. The prediction is that after another few years, the internet will be used to stream movies to your home.

Check out VONGO (vongo.com) which is a service from the Starz Network. I had it for a while but I cancelled because I found myself paying $9.99 per month and not really watching any movies. But when I did it was great for the convenience.

The movie would download to your hard drive, the quality would be that of VCR. I could start watching after about a minute of download and I could keep the movie and watch it as many times as I wanted till it expired. It had some software protection built in that caused it to erase itself when Starz license for the movie expired. But some movies wer good for a year or so.

I could also hook up my computer to a TV and watch the movie with the family. I can see this taking off because you get the movie right away so the family and I could decide right then and there on a Friday night the movie we wanted to watch and a minute later it was on (no waiting for Netflix to be shipped and no driving to a video store).

NBC also does this with their TV shows. If I miss Studio 60 episode on Monday night I can watch it on my computer between Tuesday morning till Sunday Night.

But you do have to have a high speed internet access.

All formats that depend on mechanical motion for reproduction (spinning CDs & DVDs, cassettes, spinning hard disks, LPs, etc) are eventually doomed for that reason: the mechanical piece. Flash memory has already been assembled into laptop "disk drives" that'll last much longer due to zero mechanical motion. And that's not to say there's anything wrong with any of the aforementioned formats, just that it's usually the lack of mechanical parts and the simplicity of random access memory that makes them superior for the "appliance society" that we're becoming.

I think that it would be a nightmare. Every time I wanted to "own" a movie, I would have to keep my computer busy downloading it for hours...and what about the event of a power shortage during the download? I would have already paid the studio, and would end up with half a movie or even less. Would I have to pay the whole fee again to try another download? Another thing, it may sound silly to some people, but I really like ( and I know there are others ) to really "collect" movies in physical form, meaning not only to have the disc but it's box with pictures, photos, titles and so on, and I like to have that big collection of DVDs displayed on the shelf. Like other people, I also enjoy the act of going to the store to buy a disc, not only a disc that I already intended to buy, but also to be surprised and finding among the titles a movie that I wasn't even thinking of when I left home, but developed the desire to buy in the moment I saw it for sale ( it happens quite often to me, specially when I see classics from the 1930's, 40's and 50's for sale at very low prices ).

I can only hope that the large chains like Wal-Mart and others, who really have a lot to loose if this downloading practice catches on, make pressure on the studios so the studios will not finish recording movies on DVD. I read somewhere that it seems that Disney is making pressure on the other movie studios to increase the sale of movies on the web downloading system.

Not being able to buy movies in physical form, to me, is like loosing part of the experience. It's more or less the same feeling I have when I drink soda on these plastic bottles that are in use nowadays, when compared to the glass bottles used in not a so distant past. The industry used glass bottles for years for one good reason: there wasn't a plastic available with the right chemical properties to preserve the taste and other qualities of the soda drinks. They spent years and millions of dollars in research trying to create a suitable plastic. I don't know how it is in the USA and other markets, but here in Brazil a very small fraction of the sales of Coca Cola is still made in glass bottles. And, after I tasted Coca Cola from a glass bottle a short time ago, my suspicions were confirmed: despite all the money and effort put on the creation of the plastic bottles, Coca Cola still tastes better if it is in a glass bottle. I really can't explain it with precise words, but to me, it really tastes a little better. It seems that it's very hard, if not impossible, to create a plastic with all that chemical properties of glass. The plastic does alter, at least a tiny little bit, the taste of the soda.

I think that it would be a nightmare. Every time I wanted to "own" a movie, I would have to keep my computer busy downloading it for hours...

At high speed the download is about 20 minutes (and everyone who has cable tv can have high speed internet). Also, you can start watching about a minute into the download.

and what about the event of a power shortage during the download? I would have already paid the studio, and would end up with half a movie or even less. Would I have to pay the whole fee again to try another download?

The service is subscription based (you pay monthly, just like Netflix). You don't pay per download, and the software remembers to resume a download when it stops if it stops for any reason. For the Pay Per View movies (pay about $3.00 on top of the subscription) you pay when you watch and the download interuption method still applies.

Another thing, it may sound silly to some people, but I really like ( and I know there are others ) to really "collect" movies in physical form, meaning not only to have the disc but it's box with pictures, photos, titles and so on, and I like to have that big collection of DVDs displayed on the shelf.

That's why there will be a vintage DVD market, and a vintage DVD forum on AK, and rare, mint DVDs going for hundreds of dollars on that famous auction site.

Welcome to the future... :banana: :banana: :banana:

I do not think SD DVDs are going anywhere for at least several years, and by the time they "go away" (if they ever do), one or both of the HD disc formats (whichever survives, maybe both) will be widely available with cheap discs and players. Remember, prerecorded VHS tapes did not actually "go away" until after DVDs and players were also quite inexpensive.

Downloaded content will also not likely replace hard-copy buying, at least for video/movies, in my opinion. Yes, downloads are a big part of the music world now (and getting bigger), but I see at least two reasons why music and video/movies will not follow the same path:

-One big advantage of downloaded music versus store-bought discs is the ability to buy individual songs online rather than "albums" that, though far more heavily promoted, often have few good songs other than the "single" song that gets played on radio.

-Music is a "listen anywhere, while you do other things" activity, so it fits the "portable data" model much better than movies/video. Movies are a visual medium (obviously), usually watched in your home where you can store a collection of hard copies easily, and the "visual" aspect includes looking at disc covers and so on. Who really needs to look at the box from a CD (or a bunch of them) when deciding what to listen to?

I have both HD disc formats and a large-screen projector setup, and they blow regular DVDs away when seen on such a system. On a 30" TV, no, they will not.

Just wanted to point out that although flash memory may be somewhat more reliable than a mechanical system, there is a limit to how many times it can be written(flashed). I have read that this is somewhere around 10000 times.

Each write damages the oxide in the chip a small amount, This finally fails.

Also wanted to note that here in Texas, you can still purchase Dr. Pepper made with pure cane sugar(as all soft drinks used to be made), no corn syrup. It costs more, but boy does it taste better. You can also get Mexican Coke with pure cane sugar-also much better tasting.